Monday, October 22, 2007

Oct 2007 Monthly report

My Trading month for Oct ends on 19 Oct. Month to month ROI was a fantastic 40%. Of course translated to the numbers of pips I made it is more than 500 pips.

The month of Sep 2007, which ends on 21 Sep, ROI was 31%, number of pips was more than 500.

I have began trading for November, which today is the first day. The month will end on 16 Nov - third Firday of the month. Target is to have min 20% ROI, given the fact that I will be away for a week from 28 Oct to 5 Nov.

Its all about God blessings

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

The 4 steps Assessment for GBP

I stop counting the number of pips for the month ending in Oct.

A week before the 3rd Friday of Oct which is this Friday, I have already hit my target and way above last month. Recalling, last month I have made more than 500 pips, >30% ROI m/m. As of today, >700pips, 38% ROI month to month.

God Bless.

This was build upon a trading method that I employed for the month of June, July and August. As seen in these five months, the market move up, then crash and recovered before now moving side way. BUT no difference to me, its a straight five months of profits. The target set was 20% ROI m/m and 300 pips.

The intial method was based purely on news and technicals. I added another 2 - stock market indices and comparision against major currency. Of course, couple with a unique way to handle money management and trading emotions, the profit was stretched by an addition 10%, and of course more pips per month.

I will be sharing these four steps analysis soon. But, if you have already follow me in my daily market analysis, you should have already catch my idea. No rocket science, its how you read news and understand the fundamentals and make precise move using technicals to max out the profit for the day. Money management cushion the emotions and make me less constraint by these emotions.

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

2 Oct 2007

Collected my profit yesterday with a short at 2.0430 and TP at 2.0390.

Expecting a side way movement, but with probability of down, with the daily chart showing a strong overbought for GBP, I will place some short position rather than long. If the price break below EMA100 (using 1 hour chart), I will trigger my short poistion (2.0380) and take profit below EMA200.

A breakout up will be at 2.0500 and a strong breakout down is at 2.0330.

Looking at the other currency, EUR YEN CHF have make high against USD. Will it reverse? Stong case and if so, GBP will too. But who is the leader?

Monday, October 01, 2007

My Money Management and Trading Platform

I have no preferences for any trading platform. But I choose to use Oanda (www.oanda.com)

One of the main reason is because oanda offer it allow me to have a primary account and create a number of sub accounts.

In general, I use the primary account for, say buy GBP, and sub account 1 for sell GBP. If I need to take a long position in GBP, I will use the primary account. It does not matter if that position is close or profit is taken and in the event I need to short GBP, I will then switch to the sub account 1 and place a short in GBP. In such a case, I will have one long position and one short position in GBP.

I advocate that for one transaction, the margin use is only 20% of your capital. At the maximum, the number of open position is 3, that is using upto a maximum of 60% of your trading capitial. Also an important thing to note, I use only a 50:1 leverage.

The next important questions to ask is about take profit, stop loss and when to abandon your open position.

In my recent play, I only place take profit - in days of dispersion (base on David Kolachi term) and using 1 hour chart. I do not and seldom place stop loss, meaning I can take unlimited loss. That is why, I must spend at least 5 to 10 mins a day at least, looking at what happen to the market. In one worst day, the market can work against you by at most and seldom more than 200 pips. That is my worst loss, if I need to abandon my position. Therefore, unless I am away, I will not place stop loss. I will only abandon position, if and only if I know that GBP will not reverse back to that price.

50:1 leaverage is good (need about $4000~ to buy or sell a standard leg of GBP). In a worst case, say a 200 pips against you. The loss is only $2000. Using a 50:1 leverage, you still have money left and will not incur a margin call.

Using 60% of your capital is good, because it will allow you to hold your open position that is in the wrong direction. Assuming a reversal take place 1 month later and work against you by 500pips, and assuming you did not transac all at the same time, but space them up say 50 to 100 pips. The remaining 40% allow you to hold your position, assuming again such a reversal took place.

Don't bother too much about interest rates. GBP and USD, the interest rate difference is about 1%. That is if you buy USD and hold GBP, you lose about $2 per day for one standard leg. Assuming a reversal does take place after 1 month, the interest you pay is only 6 pips. And assume you can over that, you still make.

Lastly, control your greed and fear. The market always open tomorrow or next Monday. If you miss a trade, let it be so. If you close your position too early, let it be so. Remember, I rather not enter a bad trade but wait for the right trade. Don't lose your capital. This is not a gambling game and lastly, don't play based on your guts and your feeling.

Key Forex Site I surf

For starting off with Forex: www.babypips.com

For Forex News announcement: www.forexfactory.com

For News: http://finance.yahoo.com

For Stock market indices: http://finance.yahoo.com

For Interest Rates: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates-table

My trading platform: www.oanda.com

1 Oct 2007

Wow, the C-wave is bigger than I expected. And indeed GBP went into a overbought case.

I am letting go both long position and take my profits.

I have place two sell limit order - one at 2.0680 and the other at 2.0430.
The later one at 2.0430, I have place a TP at 2.0390 (Expecting the WMA5 to hit EMA100 and rebound, using the 1 hour chart).

2.0700 is the next Fib retracement level, which is a very strong resistance line.