29 Feb 2008

GJ
Finally, I close by short position at 210.2, with a +100pips profit!

I have now 3 long positions at 213.2, 212.2 and 211.2.
I have too added another long position in the morning at 208.1, TP 210.9

I have place another long limit order at 206.2

GU
My short limit order at 1.9860 was filled and now taking losses. Tp set at 1.9735

I have too place a ling limit order at 1.9730, Tp 1.9845

28 Feb 2008

GJ
My long limit order at 212.2 was filled.
In addition, I placed another order at 211.2 and that was filled too.

As such, I now have open position at long 213.2, 212.2, 211.2 and short position at 210.2

I am not placing any new positions, but set TP for short 210.2 at 209.2
Also long 211.2, TP at 212.5


GU
My long order at 1.9804 was closed at TP 1.99715 (the peak was 1.99729! close!)
My long order at 1.9745 was not triggered.

I have placed a short limit order at 1.9860, TP 1.9805
I have also placed a long limit order at 1.9705, TP 1.9851

27 Feb 2008

GJ long order at 213.2 filled. I still have a short order at 210.2

I place another long order at the same number of lot as the short order at 212.2. This is to further hedge against the losing short order.

Now should the price hovers between 213.2 and 210.2, at least in terms of interest, I am earning!

I believe the support for GJ is at 208 and 207, so there is still good hope for GJ to go lower.

It has been long time I have not reported on my GU trade.
At current, I have 1 long position at 1.9804, TP 1.99715
I have place 1 long limit order at 1.9745, TP 1.9853

It has been good for GU these few days, taking profits from 1.940 in long position till now.

26 Feb 2008

GJ not an easy pair. After trying Nicotina method to trade, it seems for me for the last 2 weeks, not much a success.

I still held on to the short position at 210.21.

If I have trade in accordingly, my short position at 210.5 would have been triggered and take a 100 pips lost. But on the contrary, my long position at 211.47 would have been filled and TP at 212.47. Net gain = 0.

I will take a break from trading Nicotina method for GJ, until I understand more about the phychology behind. Maybe the 25 pips offset is not enough, like the case of yesterday, a low was made at 210.47, which 25 pips below 210.75 = 210.5 was not enough to miss it.

This pair in general has a 7-10 pips spread, and one good placement was to made a 30 pips, instead of 25 pips.

At current, I place a long limit order at 213.2, with double the lots compared to the number of lots I place in the open short order.
I too place another long limit order (same number of lot) at 211.4, halfway between EMA100 and EMA200 (1 hour chart).

Should a breakout ocur at 213.2, I will take gain which is double the lost from my open short order. As such, once the breakeven point is made, I can then decide to cut lost.

Should GJ goes down below 211.4, I will hold on to my long order and gain in carry trade interest, while waiting for either the market to go down, then if possbile locse the short order with profit.

25 Feb 2008

Friday was not a good day. The short position was triggered at 210.21 and it never go below 210.0

Currently, instead of taking loses, I am holding it to this position. This is not part of the play, you should let let go or let it go when it hit the SL at 211.21.

22 Feb 2008

GJ, a good +100pips earning.

The pound finally breakout north at 210.7 and rallied to a high of almost 212, before reverse back to the breakout level.

21 Feb 2008

Yesterday GJ short limit order filled at 209.59. Of course the TP was set at 208.59.

The price never goes below 209. At SGT 2000hrs, I realized this and the reason for so is because of the Fib retracement support line at 209 using a daily chart.

The trade was cut short with a +25 pips profit at 209.34.

20 Feb 2008

Yesterday, closes GJ trade with +100pips at 209.60

19 Feb 2008

GJ short limit order triggered at 210.60, still hanging to the trade and currently incurring paper losses.

18 Feb 2008

GJ took a -100 pips on Friday.

Trade filled at 212.94, but failed to take profit at 213.94.
SL triggered at 211.94

I cancelled my short limit order at 211.71 when the long limit order was filled.

Should the short limit order be filled, its TP at 210.71 would have tirggered for that day, and that will even out my -100pips lost.

15 Feb 2008

GJ get me +100 pips yesterday.
Long limit order filled at 212.83 and TP at 213.83. The high for the day was at 213.89.

Nicotina trading method is a simple method, but I caution that it has to couple with some understanding of the market physiology.

Intra-Day GY using modified Nicotina Mtd

The original concepts for trading GDP/JPY is proposed by Nicotina.

Accordingly, System: Find the maximum and the minimum between 18:00GTM and 2:00GTM and then put a buy stop order with maximum and a sell stop order with the minimum. TP 100 SL 50 If close in S/L open again the stop orders. Close the day if close in S/L for the second time. Close the day if close in TP. Do not change the SL and the TP Closes orders manually only at the end of the day (18:00 GTM).

The basics is that the most you can win in a day is 100 pips and the most you can lose is also 100pips. Using backtesting, the results for 2007 is that there is more wins than lose. On average is about 200-300 pips on a good week and about 700-800pips per month.

This method closes the trade each day and there is a need to monitor the market throughout the day - because of the re-entry.

I modified the system, with no re-entry. This will means, instead of setting the SL at 50pips, I set them at 100pips.

In addition, I will not set TP = 100 pips as a fix. Of course it will means lesser and will so call bring the risk to profit ratio from 1:1 to lesser, but it increase the probabilty of hitting TP instead of SL.

To determine TP, I retain the use of my EMAs (21, 55, 100 and 200). Fib retracement is also use.

For example, say for Short stop, SL at 100, before setting TP, see if there is any EMAs or Fib retracement that gives support line. Should it be less than TP=100, say 50, set TP at the next support line. The likelihood of close the trade and hit the TP at 50 is better. There are number of cases, which I back test, the price went below (say 50) but fail to hit TP at 100 and rebound to hit SL at 50.

Happy trading, I will be posting my hi and lo for the day starting tommrrow in the Daily Assessment for GY. If there is changes to TP, I will too highlight.