Thursday, June 12, 2008

My Trading Method (Session 11)

Selecting the Right Brokering House

There are so many brokering house for forex. Just do a google search and you will find lots of them. So which one?


Selecting the right one means a lot, and to me it is important as it has to fit well and has to do with the method I am using to trade.


Take an example, a standard lot (or lag) for forex is 100,000 units of a currency. There are some broker to stand by this transaction and that means you need to have say EUR2500 or SGD5000 for a single transaction of GBP/JPY for a margin of 50:1


As such other starts to offer mini-lots or micro-lots, that is a fraction of 100,000 but still fix in size.


Below are some of the considerations:
a) Local or foreign broker
b) Cost per transaction
c) Size of transaction
d) Margin
e) Company setup
f) Charting service
g) Auto trade service
h) Call and helpline
i) Spread and the rate of change in spread
j) Internet reliability


Local and Foreign Broker
A search by Google on "forex" will lead you to a list of broker.
If you happen to open a real trading account with a foreign broker and the very next day, the company close shop and run away with your money, there will be little chance you can recover your money.
In Singapore, a leverage trading company or broker has somewhat some protection from MAS. In the event of a closure, you may not recover all your money, but at least some. In addition, you can go to the shop and create a commotion, hopefully get some attention!

Regardless, a local broker has always the advantage of geographical nearest and you can always easily get to the shop should you need help or any compliants.

When you choose a foreign company you need to consider bringing money out of that country. You may be tax.

As a guide, for local broker, capital gain is not taxable, meaning you are not tax by the government when you withdraw your money. For US and Canada, foreigners bringing out money based on capital gain is also not taxable. Bringing money into Singapore from capital gain is also not taxable.

Beware of broker or company that setup simple to solicite your money and offer you a lot of incentives to open an account with them.

Do your due deligence on the company. A due deligence is necessary especially so for a foreign company. A due deligence can be conducted through a detail research. Creditibility is needed from the site that gives good report for the company. The broker may pay a particular site to give false report. Use forum to get a unbias report. A better due deligence is to visit the company oversea and physically know that such a broker exist. Beware of company on site that does not have a physical address or even a telephone number.

Cost per transaction
The basic cost for your transaction is spread. The difference between bid and ask price everytime you enter a transaction is call spread. Check the spread and compare the spread across broker for the same currency over the same period of time.

The bigger the spread, the more difficult yo break even and make money. For example, company A has a spread of 4 pips for EUR/USD while company B has 2 pips. You get to earn 2 pips less from company A than B.

The other cost per transaction is commission. Beware that some broker charge on top of just the spread, they charge a fix cost, say a ten dollar for a standard lot transaction. Compare to Company A which charge 4 pips for a standard lot transaction, which cost you 40USD for EUR/USD. If Company C charge 2 pips plus a $30USD per standard lot transaction, the total cost works out to be 50USD or in fact 5 pips per standard lot transaction!

For some company, if your number of transaction per month is less than a certain volume, a fee will be levy on you.

Size of Transaction
Some company offer only standard lot size transaction - that is 100,000 units. Other permits a fix fraction of the standard lot - call mini lot 10,000 and micro lots 1,000

Other, offer any size.

Because forex is a leverage trading, it means that in order to buy 100,000 units of GBP/JPY using a leverage of 50:1, you may need USD5000. Some may not have that capital. Normally, you don't throw all your capital to buy 1 transaction. Therefore you need more capital.

Margin
Forex is all about leverage trading. The broker will give you x times the dollars you put into the transaction for your purchase. For example, for a leverage of 100:1, for every dollar you put into the transaction, you can buy 100dollars worth of currencies.

But more is not also good. If the direction is with you - good, the more leverage you have, the bigger earning you have for the little you put in. The reverse is also true, if the direction is against you, you lose a lot!

Some company offer 100:1 and even 200:1. For others only 50:1

Please also understand the margin call policy related to the company. If you are losing money and has insufficient capital or margin to cover, you get a margin call. Some company ilterally call you and ask you to top up. Beware that you can go into the red and the company will ask you for money to cover the losses. Because you levarage, instead of losing a dollar, you are losing 200 dollars. that is why, the impression that many has on leverage trading is that your lose seem unlimited.

For other company, they simply closes your transaction and you take losses not more than your capital. These company do so to protect you from losing more than you have put in. But I say that it is because, it is difficult for them to go after me for money as I am 20000 miles away from the US!

Company Setup
Forex exchange is not centralized. That is it is not like SGX, whereby anyone who want to trade stock - either buy or sell must come to SGX.

Foreign currency exhange cis decentralized. They vary in size in terms of the volume of transaction they handle. As such the bigger broker who trade for banks, you can expect the voltality. There are also those that the internet term as buck shop. The former matches per standard lot transaction buyer for seller. The later take your transaction, buy or sell them regardless of whether there is an opposite seller or buyer.

Worse of all, there are those who are spam.

Physically, some has a shop front, some don't.

Charting Service
Most broker offer you a free demo account. Use them and practice and get use to the trading platform.

Make sure you like the charting software. Check out the technical that is offered.

I remember a case of a poor charting service offered by broker A, but because broker A offered the best cost per transaction, I employed the charting service of broker B.

Some allow you to custom your own technical indictors, but most don't.

Some give you a quick click to make a transaction, others don't. Remember when you place your trade with a click of a mouse, it take some time for the order to be transmitted and what do you think will happen to the price during this short moment?

Auto Trade Service
Auto trade allow your program that is based on your trading strategy to be run. So instead of you placing the order, the order will be execute automatically and in accordance to your entry signals.

Some like Meta 4 offer free, other you need to pay for the API. Most allow programming in Windows, some limited for Linux or Mac or Java. Most use C or C++.

To write a program, you need to be familiar with the libraries and you need to know the programming structure. That take time to learn. So the easiest is to check if there are many people using it, so that when you face problem, you know who and where to seek help.

A good strategy needs data for back testing. These data are normally provided by the broker, but check again, do you need to pay.

A good strategy also need forward testing and that takes time. If you need to pay, then you are losing money before you earn them!

Call and Helpline
Are they available? When are they available?

You may need them. Especially so when it come to your account and it involves money.

Call them and check if they are friendly. Some are only available via email. Test these too. But more importantly, check out their service in terms of technical competency.

Spread and the rate of change of spread
I have mentioned what is spread and different broker offer different spread for the same pair over the same period.

Please note that there is a different in spread for different currency and there is also differnt spread across the 24 hours time zone. Holiday and weekend have differnt spread from weekdays.

When news announcement, the spread normally widen.

Do an experiement for yourself to see how the spread widen during major news announcement. But more importantly, compare how fast the spread closes back. Some broker has rediculous spread widening during news and some simply take too long to closes back.

Nevertheless, if you are not trading by the news, you will be least affected.

But if you are, know the spread - how wide the opening and know how fast they closes back after the news. They can affect your position you place.

I have witnessed that the spread widen so fast and zoom pass my desired price and give my price a miss!

Internet Reliability
Know how fast your transaction is being executed. Know how often the broker server broke down. Know how often your local service provide broke down and worse know how often you have a black out.

In the event you lose a internet connection - know what happen. You may want to test this out and see for yourself what appen to your transaction by simple switching off the internet power.

In the event of a lose connection, how is the connection re-establish? Does it need you to reboot and login again or can it and will it re-establish connection automatically?


Conclusions
Know what you need - your trading method, your money management, and be comfortable with the broker you are to use.

There will be risk - can you accept them. All business has risks. To spread out your risk, you may want to employ more than 1 broker.










Wednesday, June 11, 2008

My Trading Method (Session 10)

Basic Knowledge

The are a lot of basics in forex. It is good that you know them, for without so, you can be quite lost in the terminology that I mentioned.

I first refer to http://www.babypips.com/. This site, in my opinion has been one of the easy site learning about all the basic you need to know on forex.

I will go through the key ones, especially those that I will be using in explaining my Trading method
a) Pips - what is it?
b) Candle stick - what is the physical intepretation?
c) Moving averages - simple, weighted, expoential and concept of support and resistance
d) CCI - concept of leading and lagging indicator, concept of trend and momentum
e) Bolinger band - concept of squeeze and breakout
f) Fibonacci Retracement - concept of support and resistance
g) Elliot Wave - concept of trend and momentum

The best way to follow my method is hands on.
First create a game account. If you have no broker in mind, use http://www.oanda.com/. The bewares of using oanda is clearly stated, and there are risks involved. I will go through the next sessions on broker selection.

The method that I am employing is based on trends and support and resistance.
I trade mainly GBP/JPY and GBP/USD because of the big swings and big daily movement.
Placing your trade is perfered during Asian market trading time, because in general of low voltality of the pairs I mentioned.

Second fill the account with a sum of money. It will be best that this is about the actual capital that you can affort.

Third fill the chart with the following:
a) Daily chart - candle sticks
b) 1 hour chart - candle sticks

For each chart fill them with
a) WMA5
b) EMA21
c) EMA55
d) EMA100
e) EMA200

Also for GBP/JPY use CCI(21) and BB(21, 0.8) and BB(21, 1.5)
For GBP/USD use CCI(14) and BB(10,0.3) and BB(10,0.8)

Your day chart should look like this

Fourth, get yoursel familiar with the buttons

a) How to do a market buy/sell, place a limit order to buy/sell
b) How to change your leverage
c) How to change you trade amount
d) How to read the spread
e) How to set Take Profit and Stop Loss
f) How to add additional currencies
g) How to change chart time scale
h) How to change technical graphs color
i) How to zoom in and out of the same chart
j) How to set up sub accounts
k) How to add and remove and transfer funds

I will choose to stop here while you setup.

Do also read up on the differences in Market Order, Limit Order, Take Profit, Stop Loss

Monday, June 09, 2008

GY Pics 29 May - 9 Jun 2008

Use this pics, together with my daily market survey, to understand how my trading method works
http://www.2shared.com/file/3409192/c2979874/29_May_-_9_Jun_2008_GY_Pics.html

Friday, June 06, 2008

How Forex Works (Session 9)

Margin Trading

Forex employed a powerful leverage machine called margin trade.

Basically unlike the money changer that we call know where the leverage is 1:1, the forex brokerage house give you a leverage of say 20:1, 50:1, 100:1.

Oanda gives at most 50:1

With a starting capital of USD$10,000 and if you choose to trade the entire $10,000, Oanda with 50:1, permits you to buy USD$10,000 x 50 = USD$500,000 worth of foreign currencies.

Say the exhange between GBP/USD is 2.000 that is 2 USD change 1 pound.

With USD$500,000 you can change GBP250,000

Now assuming the GBP/USD move to 2.0010 or 10 pips and now you decide to sell your pounds and get back your USD.

You will get for every 2.0010 USD for 1 pound, since you have GBP250,000, you will get USD500,250. Basically you profit USD250.

Calculating USD250 out of USD10,000 gives you a 2.5% return on investment. This is only one day and definetely beats the interest you receive from your banks. Do the same calculation for stocks, you may not get such a good return on investment!

But likewise, if the direction you placed is against you. You lose USD250 for a 10 pips movement change. If the trend continue, say now you are 100 pips in the wrong direction, you are losing USD2500. That is a quater of your capital.

What is margin call?
It depends on broker. But say, the broker you are using will issue a margin call when you have lose all your capital. When you are 400 pips in the red, which is USD10,000 loses, you will get a margin call. For such a broker, it may just close your transtion and you take lose. The next day you will see that your entire capital is wipe out.

Margin work for you -leverage, but it can also work against you. So make sure you have always enough margin or "running capital" just in case, the price movement is against you and so that you can hold on to your position without getting a margin call.

Some broker permit you to go into the red and ask you to top up the difference. Beware! For such a case you are subjected to unlimited loses that is more than your capital. But of course, broker are also caution and do not want to risk such a case, when you can easily run away! they will give margin call warning before your capital run low.

FX Trading Agreement

Foreign Currency Trading Agreement

The following version superceed the previous.

http://www.2shared.com/file/3397029/47b9d7fa/FORIEGN_CURRENT_TRADING_AGREEMENTv20.html